El Niño and La Niña are alternating climate patterns summarized by warmer than average and lower than average Pacific Ocean temperatures, respectively. Due to an east-flowing jet stream covering most of Canada and the U.S., El Niño and La Niña shape North American weather, precipitation, and (consequently) energy prices. This article discusses how El Niño (see image 1) impacted Bitcoin miners over the last few years and how a La Niña temperature shift in the Pacific Ocean will impact North American Bitcoin miners until spring 2025.
El Niño: How did it affect Bitcoin miners?
Last summer in the U.S. South, Bitcoin miners monitoring pacific ocean temperature patterns were expecting cooler than average temperatures and wetter weather, which should have led to lower-than-average cooling costs for ASICs and an end to Texas’ drought season. While the Texan drought did end due to high rainfall, above-average global temperatures appeared to have dampened the expected cooling effect miners hoped to enjoy. The silver lining? As El Niño lowered Texas’ daily average temperature by 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit, maybe last summer and winter could have been even hotter. This boost from slightly cooler temperatures resulted in less grid competition and facility maintenance challenges than otherwise could have been for southern Bitcoin miners.
However, unlike their southern counterparts, the U.S. north, the rocky mountain regions and most of Canada experienced warmer than average temperatures and drier seasons. In these regions, Bitcoin miners benefited from less than average adverse winter weather that led to less interference in local Bitcoin mining operations. The short-term effects of the warmer and dryer temperatures meant less snowfall, which was especially noticeable in the earlier winter months. As surface temperatures were higher than normal, increased snowmelt in the mountains increased hydroelectric power generation (see image 2), and crucial reservoirs in these regions increased from 30 to 110% of the historical average.
2023-2024’s wetter-than-average winter also hydrated forests on both sides of the rocky mountains, reducing wildfire risk in those areas. Overall, Bitcoin miners in these regions likely experienced below-average extreme weather events, related costs, and a stable electric grid thanks in part to increased snow melt. Additionally, as warmer winter months placed less demand on domestic heating, Bitcoin miners in the region had less competition over available energy.
La Niña: What can Bitcoin miners expect for the next 6-12 months?
In the U.S. south, Bitcoin miners can expect, on average, warmer and dryer weather for the upcoming fall, winter and spring. Texas Bitcoin miners and the like should brace for the possibility of hotter days (see image 3), driving increased competition over the energy grid (increase in residential A/C) and logistical challenges around cooling heat-generative ASICs.
As warmer temperatures impact the efficiency of miners, some miners may reduce the throttle of their ASICs to preserve longevity and reduce cooling costs. However, Texas Bitcoin miners shouldn't expect a winter full of hot sunny skies, as La Niña brings an unstable polar jet stream. The variability in the jet stream means that occasional polar vortexes can lead to sudden below-freezing events in Texas, which, when accompanied by precipitation, can lead to ice storms and snowfall (see image 4).
While a surprise snowfall in the northern U.S. may not spell a logistical challenge, as they have winter-ready infrastructure, it’s not the same for Texas. So while Texas mining technicians prepare for a hotter and drier winter, they might want to stock some tire chains in their work vehicle to prepare them for a variety of wintery conditions.
Northern states and Canadian Bitcoin miners must also prepare for snow and cold, even more so than their neighbors to the south. Frequent cold plunges below -30 Fº ought to be expected this winter, with more heavy snowfall events and temperature ranges 3-5 Fº less than average. While the extra snow and cold could drive superb skiing conditions, bitcoin alpine enthusiasts must traverse this winter with caution. Extreme winter events can cause facilities to suddenly lose power, potentially damaging ASICs and mining infrastructure, or in drastic cases, suffer catastrophic facility damage from leaking snow and/or ice (see image 5). Bitcoin miners ought to ensure their facilities are well insulated from the elements, with the potential need for backup generators to ensure facilities can properly navigate power outages.
U.S. Midwestern and Pacific Northwest mining facilities may see a boost in available energy supply as the increased precipitation forecasted in La Niña could potentially boost hydropower production. However, miners may have to wait for the winter season to wane so that the extra snow can melt. If the northern regions get well above-average snowfall numbers, then Bitcoin miners ought to also brace for the possibility of flooding near these areas.
Snow where it is not expected - inside mining facilities and all the way down south in Texas - is a very real threat this upcoming winter. While La Niña is a boon for North American alpine enthusiasts, it can come with additional challenges due to unpredictable and extreme weather events. Mining facilities that need weatherproofing should not put off renovations, as a significant snow or ice leak can damage precious ASICs. If miners prepare right for this upcoming winter, they can both enjoy the extra powder and power that comes with a La Niña winter.
